Tuesday, October 18, 2011

US Troop Deaths in Afghan War Under Obama Now Twice That Under Bush

US Deaths in Afghanistan: Obama vs Bush. Click here to learn more.
This weekend marked a new milestone for the war in Afghanistan: the total number of US troops killed in the war has doubled since President Obama took office, according to icasualties.org and our US Troops in Afghanistan: Obama vs Bush web counter. That means that two-thirds of the total US troop deaths have occurred in the last two years and eight months, which accounts for roughly a third of the duration of the war to date.

1728 US troops have died in Afghanistan since October 7, 2001, with 1153 of those deaths having occurred since President Obama's inauguration. 575 US troops died in Afghanistan during President Bush's term in office.

We've all heard the argument before: Bush ignored Afghanistan, Obama did what he promised by escalating the war, and since more troops means more deaths, we shouldn't be surprised by the increased death rate.

Back in June, when US deaths in Afghanistan under Obama reached 1000, I wrote a piece about this argument. I'm not going to address it further here, because there are more pressing issues of concern than looking to the past.

Just weeks before US troop deaths under Obama hit 1000, the President announced his strategy for a troop drawdown in Afghanistan. In this speech, he outlined a proposal for removing 10,000 troops at the end of this summer, with 23,000 more following at the end of next summer. After that, troops will “continue coming home at a steady pace as Afghan security forces move into the lead. Our mission will change from combat to support. By 2014, this process of transition will be complete, and the Afghan people will be responsible for their own security.”

What many Americans inferred from this passage was that all US troops will be out of Afghanistan by 2014. This is quite understandable, and was perhaps the intention of the passage. To say that, by 2014, “the transition will be complete” and “the Afghan people will be responsible for their own security” seems to suggest little or no role for the US military.

Unfortunately, this inference is invalid. The key statement here is that “our mission will change from combat to support.” It is this transition that will be completed by 2014 and not the transition out of Afghanistan. That means that there is still no deadline for the full withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan.

Furthermore, if the Pentagon gets its way, it will be a long time before our military leaves Afghanistan. In August, the Telegraph reported that the Pentagon was in negotiations with the Afghan government to leave 25,000 US troops in Afghanistan until at least 2024. Just to give you a little context: there were 25,000 US troops in Afghanistan in 2007. So, a drawdown to 25,000 troops by 2014 would merely be a return to 2007 troop levels. Funny thing that a support mission would require just as many troops as a combat mission!

But perhaps you're thinking that the support troops will have a different role than the combat troops.

Former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates had something to say about that. When asked what the difference is between combat and non-combat troops, Gates said that non-combat troops have a “combat capability” and will engage in “targeted counterterrorism operations.” Which prompts the question: how, again, are non-combat troops different than combat troops?

In 2007, 111 US troops died in Afghanistan. Extrapolating from this data, if the US leaves 25,000 US troops in Afghanistan from 2015, the beginning of the support mission, until at least 2024, we may lose over a thousand troops under the guise of a support mission.

This is unacceptable. A recent CBS poll indicates that two-thirds of Americans support ending the war in Afghanistan within the next two years. If Americans knew that the war isn't coming to an end in 2014, if they knew how insufficient the proposed US withdrawal really is, I think that they'd be angry. I think they'd be angry enough to do something.

That's why we created a new site, countdowntodrawdown.org. Here, we plan to track the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, to educate Americans about the lack of a timetable for full withdrawal, and to mobilize Americans to demand an end to this war. You'll find a counter tracking the number of US troops still in Afghanistan, 10 facts about the US withdrawal, and a petition to President Obama.

Mark this grim milestone in the war by sharing this information with your friends and neighbors. With the Occupy protest movement gaining steam, and demands for ending the wars receiving more attention than they have in a while, this is the moment to make sure people know the reality of the situation we face so they can fight even harder and more effectively against it.

As Occupy Wall Street Marks One Month Anniversary, Movement Revises Mission, Still Lacks Exit Strategy

NEW YORK—America heaved a collective groan today as the mercurial Occupy Wall Street movement revised its mission for the fifth time in as many weeks while continuing to avoid the issue of the occupation's end game.

In a consensus decision reached during last night's General Assembly, Occupy Wall Street protesters determined to hold a press conference this morning in order to “clear up some misunderstandings concerning the mission and goals” of the occupation, according to the press release.

Standing atop the stone staircase located at the west end of the newly christened Liberty Park, otherwise known as Zuccatti Park, Natasha Gary, a member of Occupy Wall Street's media working group, addressed reporters through the people's mic, a system of human amplification that involves the echoing of a speaker's statements by the surrounding crowd. After a resounding round of “mic check!” resonated through the audience, Gary stated that “the mission of Occupy Wall Street is very simple: to eliminate the influence of corporations in our government.”

She denied that this signaled a shift in strategy—only a clarification.

Previously, individuals within the movement have described a wide range of goals for the occupation, including ending corporate hegemony, making the corporations and the wealthy pay their fair share in taxes, and addressing economic inequality.

When asked how the occupation plans to combat corporate domination of our political and economic systems, Occupy Wall Street organizer Liam Weeks replied, “we're not ready to make that announcement yet. We're currently researching alternatives and considering various paths in informal conversation as well as in our nightly general assemblies. But it should be quite clear to America what the immediate path ahead is for this occupation.”

But many Americans were left even more confused and frustrated than they were before the address.

“I just don't understand what corporate greed, student loans, economic injustice and the wars have to do with each other,” said Tammy Kerr, a tourist from Tulsa, Oklahoma. “And I surely don't get how they're related to the influence of corporations in our government.”

“Shouldn't they have come up with a strategy with particular, concrete goals before they took over the park?” asked Lou Chang, a truck driver from Flushing. “It's like they jumped into this occupation without thinking it through, and now they're stuck there with no idea how to get out.”

“These Occupy Wall Street people revise their mission every other day,” said Rick Tanner, an economist at the American Enterprise Institute. “What they're trying to do is cover up the fact that they really don't have a mission. They don't know what they're doing out there. Meanwhile, they're wasting an egregious amount of tax payer money every day they continue this aimless occupation.” Tanner estimates that the total tax payer bill for one week of the occupation, including police overtime, orange netting, paddy wagons, pepper spray and plastic handcuffs, “runs into the hundreds of millions.”

Furthermore, as Tanner points out, “the protesters have no plan for ending their protest and no strategy for leaving the park.” Once the protesters do leave the park, “a massive clean-up is going to be required. We're looking at a long-term commitment here for the city's sanitation department. Ten years, maybe more.” Tanner estimates that the total cost of the occupation, as well as the hundreds of other occupations across the nation, could add up to “five to ten trillion dollars.”

Human rights groups and local activists are also concerned about the repercussions of an indefinitely long occupation of Wall Street.

“Occupations like this tend to leave behind dangerous artifacts that often lead to the injury or death of members of the native population long after the occupation ends,” said Deborah Barnum-Devois, Director of Freedom Not Bongos. “We expect local residents to stumble upon crochet needles and other hazardous arts and crafts material for decades to come.”

“I used to walk through this park everyday on my way to work,” said Goldman Saks investment banker Jonathan Meyer. “Now, I have to walk half a block out of my way because the walkways in the park are packed with the occupation's equipment.” Meyer paused a moment to shake his head solemnly before adding, “it's been really hard on me, mentally. I had to jet down to Saint Maarten last weekend to recenter myself. I may have to do the same this weekend.”

“Injustice is being done here,” Meyer proclaimed, gesturing toward the park. “I hope America wakes up to the human cost of this occupation.”

Meanwhile, some experts, such as Franklin Silversmith, a sociologist at Columbia University, are concerned that the occupation could make more young people turn to banking as a career, ultimately leading to a greater influence of Wall Street over America's foreign and domestic policy—not less.

“Young people who are growing up in areas under occupation and who are being subjected to such cruelty as incessant folk music and direct democracy, like the children of Manhattan's financial district, may turn to banking as a means of retribution,” explained Professor Silversmith. “For instance, banking would give them the opportunity to secure all public and private lands in the hands of the banks, thus effectively denying the right to assembly.”

But demands, exit strategies, and human rights aren't the only issues connected with this occupation.

“What we should be asking is, 'why do these protesters want to occupy this particular park?'” said Heritage Foundation analyst Phil DeLongo. “Zuccotti park is in a prime location in the middle of the financial center of the world, where a one bedroom apartment goes for $2,500 plus a month. It's close to the water front, there's easy access to pretty much every subway line plus the Path, and it's within walking distance of not only Wall Street but City Hall, Folly Square and Chinatown. There's a McDonalds, a Burger King, a Duane Reade, all within reach. Plus, it's pigeon-free, which in and of itself makes it a very valuable outdoor space, New York City-wise.”

But the natural resources and strategic importance of the space aren't the only sources of potential profit, explained DeLongo. “Who got the contract to clean the park for the occupation? Who is handling their food services? And who is manufacturing and selling them their tarps, their cardboard, their markers, and their drums?”

“Someone is profiting from this occupation. What we need to find out is who.”

Asked whether there were any leads, DeLongo admitted that, while he had no evidence to draw a justified conclusion, “it's got to be George Soros.”

“And if it's not Soros, it's definitely [Iranian President Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad.”

Soros nor Ahmadinejad could be reached for comment.

Sunday, September 11, 2011

Beyond Asking "Why?"

“Freedom itself was attacked this morning by a faceless coward. And freedom will be defended.”

The memory most often recounted by those in New York on September 11th must be how clear and blue the sky was that day. I, for one, will never forget that sky. It was unblemished, a pure cerulean dream. And then came the cloud, though it was not the sort that carried rain—it held the sins of men. When the wind blew north the next day, I breathed in that cloud—that acrid, deathly thing—and I, and all Americans, have borne its burden ever since.

But many Americans do not see this burden for what it is, for it is not simply a grief for the events of that day. One of the lessons of September 11th should have been that events do not stand in isolation: causes extend far and wide, in time and space, and so do consequences. And perhaps now, more than ten years ago, there is a greater understanding among the general public of the hidden nature and history of U.S. foreign policy. I know that my own understanding and perception of things has grown and changed. Albeit I was only 17 on that fateful day, a college freshman for a mere week, but having been a JROTC cadet in high school, required to deliver a weekly presentation on international issues, I fancied that I was more knowledgeable than most my age. It turned out that I was quite in the dark. So, after September 11th, I wondered “why?” Many Americans did, and some even asked it of our leaders. But the answer they received was deceit.

In the days following that infamous Tuesday, I watched no television, avoiding the news or tuning it out when it happened to be on in the room. Even then I felt uneasy about the effects such programs would have on my conception of recent events. I saw the effects that it had on the people around me—their anger, their impetuousness—which seemed counterproductive given the moment.

So it was only second-hand that I learned of the explanation being proclaimed by our government for the attacks. I remember the moment fairly well because it was the first time my father and I had a substantive disagreement about politics and world affairs. A Vietnam vet, he had opposed my joining the JROTC, believing that it would lead me into the Armed Forces. Having been a draftee, he held that he had done enough service for everyone in his family. But, somehow, he still believed that the United States was a benevolent force in the world and that anyone who opposed America must be wrong. At the time, I believed this as well. But for him, being a lifelong New Yorker, having worked a block away from the World Trade Center for 20 years, having watched the towers being built during his lunch hours, an attack on New York ossified a loathing that needed no explanation for its persistence, only a direction for its emittance.

The scene took place during a car ride near my family's home. We were, of course, talking about September 11th. My father informed me that Osama bin Laden and his terrorist network, al Qaeda, were the prime suspects. I had heard of them before, having been familiar with the attack on the U.S.S. Cole and the embassy bombings in Africa. In those cases, I had never asked “why?” Perhaps because they took place far away, or because the casualties were not that great. But at this moment, I did ask, “why?” I asked, “do they know why they did this?” My father, his voice laced with scorn, replied, “because they hate our freedom. They hate our way of life, and they want to destroy it.”

“But that doesn't make sense.”

“Why not?”

“It doesn't seem like a good reason. They don't like the way we live? What does that have to do with them?”

“I don't know. It doesn't matter. They're ideologues. They're crazy bastards.”

“Is this the reason they gave? That Osama bin Laden gave? Has anyone asked him?”

“Why the hell should we ask him?”

“Because there has to be more to it than that.”

After which one side of the conversation devolved into epithets and evasions. But it turns out there was far more to it than that, although I wouldn't know this until much later. Listening to our leaders, though, one would have been led to believe that these “enemies of freedom” hated not only that ideal contained in their appellation but “our value system”, “our political system”, and “democracy” in general as well. They “resented” our “successes of society.” They targeted America because it's “the brightest beacon for freedom and opportunity in the world” and “freedom's home and defender.” But this wasn't an attack just on the United States, it was an attack “against civilization.” The United States was “called to defend freedom” from those whose goal was “remaking the world” by “imposing its radical beliefs on people everywhere,” whose objectives were to “change our way of life” and “restrict our freedoms.” But it wouldn't be al Qaeda or Osama bin Laden or the Taliban that accomplished this latter feat—it would be you, Mr. President.

But even among the lies there was truth hidden, accessible to those with the background knowledge to fill in the gaps. It's amazing how differently one can understand the following passage from Bush's September 20th address to Congress given a different set of beliefs—how differently I understood it then and how I understand it now:

Americans are asking, why do they hate us? They hate what they see right here in this chamber -- a democratically elected government. Their leaders are self-appointed. They hate our freedoms -- our freedom of religion, our freedom of speech, our freedom to vote and assemble and disagree with each other. They want to overthrow existing governments in many Muslim countries, such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan. They want to drive Israel out of the Middle East. They want to drive Christians and Jews out of vast regions of Asia and Africa. These terrorists kill not merely to end lives, but to disrupt and end a way of life. With every atrocity, they hope that America grows fearful, retreating from the world and forsaking our friends. They stand against us, because we stand in their way.


Imagine now that you believe that, for the most part, the United States government is a benevolent force in the world. You do not know much about the history of U.S. intervention, and what you do know, or think you know, is that the U.S. intervenes, if not always, then most of the time, for the good of the people of that nation in which it intervenes—or, at the very least, for the good of the American people. This is what many Americans believed then; this is what many Americans believe today. This is what I believed on September 11th. And so, even though I had questions, even though I could not accept the talk about the terrorists wanting to change everyday life in America, even though I thought there might be something more to the explanation than what we were hearing, I believed that these people, these terrorists, attacked the United States because it supported freedom and democracy in countries where they sought fundamentalism and totalitarianism.

I believed this for a long time. My awakening was painfully slow, partially because my interest in politics and world affairs lagged in college. I became frustrated with political rhetoric, with turbid debates and ad hominems. I stopped paying attention to the news. It wasn't until late 2007, when the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran's nuclear program was released, that my interest was renewed. I wondered why there was such tension between the U.S. and Iran. This time, instead of just wondering, I picked up some books. I began to read about the history of U.S.-Iran relations. I uncovered that hidden history about the Anglo-Iranian oil company, now known as British Petroleum; about the reprehensible way the British government treated the Iranian people; about Mohammed Mossadegh's plan to nationalize the oil company; about the failed attempts of the British government to overthrow the duly elected Prime Minister; and about the successful coup staged by our own CIA, planned in the basement of the U.S. embassy, to install the Shah of Iran, whom the United States then proceeded to support for two decades in his bloody repression of his own people. It was this repression that led to the Islamic revolution. When people ask, “why does the United States have such a sour relationship with Iran?” they are often told it's because of the hostage crisis, or because the Iranian regime is a totalitarian regime that, by its very nature, hates America. But that the United States bears some responsibility for this state of affairs is rarely explained.

I read voraciously and began to see this same pattern play out in the histories of many U.S. relationships. What I didn't understand on September 11th, but what I do understand now, is that some people are angry at the United States not because it supports freedom and democracy around the world, but because it supports just the opposite. From the Shah of Iran to Pinochet to Suharto, for decades, the United States has been overthrowing democratically elected leaders, sponsoring repressive regimes and international policies, and providing training and funding for death squads in order to control the people and resources of foreign nations. Out of the three governments Bush mentioned in the passage above—Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan—all three were ruled at the time by dictators who served at the pleasure of the United States, often supporting policies that were unpopular with their people in their attempts to appease their “ally”—in particular, policies pertaining to a certain apartheid regime with which the United States colludes in its humanitarian crimes. Two of those countries continue in this state. And it is not toward freedom or democracy or even the interests of the American people that these policies are pursued, but for the gains of the few—the few here and the few there—in those realms the few are all too concerned about: money and control.

This is the history of the United States that you do not learn in school or from major news outlets. This is the history that you must seek after yourself. And it is this history that September 11th compels us to understand.

I know that it is difficult to accept these claims. It was difficult for me to do so. I don't mean to defend bin Laden or al Qaeda but to explain why they have found support in some places, why they have been able to recruit and find refuge amongst some people, why their message has resonated with them. I don't expect anyone to be convinced by what I've written here. What I do hope, though, is that you spend this 10th anniversary not solely in remembrance of the tragedy of that day but in contemplation of the causes and effects. Ask again, “why?” Ask, “what don't I know about U.S. foreign policy?” Ask, “what is the true nature of the governments and international policies the United States supports now and has supported in the past?” Ask, “if I lived under that sort of regime, or was subjected to that sort of policy, and I knew the United States supported it, how would I feel about that country?” Ask, “what do the terrorists and others angry at America say?” Ask, “is current U.S. policy confirming their claims?” Conduct research, don't just rely on the news media or political pundits for your answers. Go back in history, and then go further back, because while some events may no longer live in American public memory, they may be all too alive in the memories of those in foreign countries. Be skeptical and follow the money. Then ask yourself the most important question of all: “what can I do to change this?” That is how we can prevent another September 11th—not by invading or occupying other countries and perpetuating the crimes that the terrorists accuse us of, but by looking within and asking how we can make U.S. foreign policy reflect our true values, the ones Bush himself proclaimed: respect and dignity and human worth.

Ten years distant, I now know that the sky that day was a dream, for the clouds had advanced long before the first plane hit its mark.

Thursday, June 30, 2011

In Wake of Token Drawdown Announcement, U.S. Deaths in Afghanistan Under Obama Set to Reach 1,000

Only a week after the President stood before the nation to proclaim the successes of the war in Afghanistan under his guardianship, the Obama strategy is set to reap one of its most grisly rewards: within the next few days, 1,000 U.S. troops will have died in Afghanistan since President Obama took office, according to iCasualties.org and our counter, "U.S. Deaths in Afghanistan: Obama vs. Bush" (right). By comparison, 575 U.S. soldiers died in Afghanistan under President Bush. In other words, after managing the war for a mere quarter of its duration, Obama is responsible for nearly two-thirds of U.S. casualties in Afghanistan.

What is that I hear? Ah, it's a groan coming from up in the balcony. I believe they're saying, “of course more troops were going to die under President Obama's Afghanistan strategy than President Bush's. More troops means more deaths. It was only because Bush ignored Afghanistan that Obama had to expand the U.S.'s troop commitment in the country. And now you're blaming him for it?”

I think that there are a number of things wrong with this argument, the primary one being that President Obama didn't have to escalate the war in Afghanistan; he chose to do so. There is no law of nature that describes the necessity of a President's expanding a flailing war whenever he encounters one. President Obama was beseeched by numerous Members of Congress, think tanks, organizations, and individuals (the linked materials being illustrative, not extensive) not to pursue a long-term, open-ended counterinsurgency strategy in Afghanistan, not to engage in nation-building. He was warned of the futility, of the inevitable waste in both money and lives. But the President chose, knowing full well the likely consequences, and knowing full well the maxim we hear echoing from the balcony—that more troops means more deaths—to commit a total of 70,000 troops to Afghanistan in not one but two “surges”. He could have chosen otherwise: to narrow the mission from rooting out the Taliban and propping up an unpopular, corrupt puppet government, to dismantling al Qaeda in Afghanistan. He did not. And it is telling that it is only the latter mission that can remotely be deemed successful, although what success there has been has not been due to the large troop presence in Afghanistan.

The second issue I take with the argument above is with the invocation of the maxim that more troops means more deaths. Sure, more troops in harms way seems, intuitively, to lead to more troops dying. What's surprising here, however, is not merely the number of troops that have died under Obama; rather, it's how quickly the casualties have piled up.

The war in Afghanistan was waged for roughly seven years and three months under President Bush, but President Obama has only been overseeing the war for two years and five months. In those two years and five months, the total number of U.S. deaths in Afghanistan has increased by 274%. More troops means more deaths, but it also means more deaths much more quickly.

Let's keep in mind this maxim of “more troops means more deaths” but shift our discussion from the present to the future.

Last week, President Obama announced his plan for a drawdown from Afghanistan: 5,000 troops now, 5,000 more by the end of the year, and another 23,000 by the end of next summer, which will leave roughly 68,000 troops in the country in September 2012. There were only 34,000 troops in Afghanistan when Obama took office. So even at the end of his proposed drawdown, there will be twice the number of troops in the country than when he took office. And, as we know, more troops means more deaths.

The kicker is that the U.S. doesn't need so many troops in Afghanistan to fight al Qaeda, seeing as how there are fewer than 100 of them left in the country. As for the Taliban, only a political settlement will end that conflict, as the President himself recognized in his speech last week. Consequently, if President Obama adopted a more significant and speedy drawdown strategy, as, among others, the Afghanistan Working Group, the Center for American Progress, the CATO Institute, numerous U.S. Congressmen and national editorial boards, as well as 27 U.S. Senators, endorsed, troop levels in Afghanistan would have diminished drastically by the end of this year. May I propose the counter-maxim, “less troops means less deaths,” as the one to live by?

How much longer will we keep such an enormous amount of our citizens in harms way? Unfortunately, the President wasn't so clear on how—or when—those remaining 68,000 troops will leave Afghanistan. He said that the U.S. mission in Afghanistan will transition from combat to “support” by 2014, but what he didn't say is how many troops this “support” mission will require. If it's anything like the support mission in Iraq—where, nearly a year after the transition was completed, 50,000 troops remain—we may need to mark many more grim milestones before the end comes.

One final note: those of you who have been paying attention to the news and whose arithmetic skills are not lying dormant will have noticed that the total number of deaths that I'm reporting here, 1,575, is less than the number that some organizations and news sources have been reporting recently, which is over 1,600. Allow me a moment to clarify this ambiguity that's been pervading coverage of U.S. deaths in Afghanistan.

There are two figures that are often reported interchangeably, deriving from two different sets of data. One of these sets is data for the war in Afghanistan. The other, larger figure is for Operation Enduring Freedom, which not only includes the war in Afghanistan, but U.S. military activities in Yemen, the Horn of Africa, the Philippines, and other locations. Oh, you didn't know that we had U.S. troops dying in Yemen, the Horn of Africa, or the Philipines, or that it was part of Operation Enduring Freedom? Well, don't you learn something disturbing everyday!

Friday, June 24, 2011

A Reaction to the President's Afghanistan Announcement

Hey guys, did you all hear? We're getting out of Afghanistan! Yes, finally, after nearly ten years, over 1,500 American lives, countless Afghan (and Pakistani) lives, and hundreds of billions of dollars, the President says we're pulling our forces out and the war is going to end! Hold on, I have the quote right here:


… starting next month, we will be able to remove 10,000 of our troops from Afghanistan by the end of this year, and we will bring home a total of 33,000 troops by next summer, fully recovering the surge I announced at West Point.


Wait a second—what did he say? Only 10,000 troops? But, does he know that we have over 100,000 in Afghanistan? And that there are less than 100 al Qaeda left in the country?

Let's do the math: 10,000 out by the end of this year leaves us with over 90,000 troops in Afghanistan. Another 23,000 by summer 2012 brings us down to roughly 68,000. There were about 34,000 U.S. forces in Afghanistan when Obama took office. So, one year from now, the President's proposed drawdown will leave us with double the amount of U.S. troops in Afghanistan than were there when he got involved in this whole mess. Is this sounding less like a withdrawal plan and more like a bait and switch to anyone else?

And then the remaining 68,000 American forces … wait, what is the plan for the rest?


After this initial reduction, our troops will continue coming home at a steady pace as Afghan security forces move into the lead. Our mission will change from combat to support. By 2014, this process of transition will be complete, and the Afghan people will be responsible for their own security.


“Our mission will change from combat to support.” “By 2014, this process of transition will be complete.” Putting these together, we get that, by 2014, the mission in Afghanistan will be a “support” mission instead of a “combat” mission. “Support” mission sounds reassuring. But, curious me, I want to know a tad more. How many of the troops will be removed at this “steady pace”? How many will be required to stay as part of this “support” mission?

Well, let's look at the best example we have: Iraq. The combat mission in Iraq ended in August 2010, and the mission now is one of “support”. So, we must not have that many troops there, right?

Not so fast. In September 2010, U.S. forces in Iraq were reduced to just under 50,000. A year later, there are still nearly 50,000 troops in the country. So, if we leave a proportionate number in Afghanistan (using the highest number of troops as denominator in both cases), that would leave a bit over 30,000 troops in Afghanistan as part of a “support” mission. Which is just a smidgen under the number of troops that were in Afghanistan when Obama took office, with no plan for removing them. Now that's some sophisticated chicanery!

But, of course, some major news outlets would have us believe otherwise. The LATimes heralded the reduction as “major”, while the NYTimes deemed the President's withdrawal proposal “substantial”, claiming that he is “speeding” the pullout from Afghanistan. How could they get it so wrong?

Well, if you insist on comparing the mass of an ant to that of a water molecule, of course you'll come to the conclusion that the ant is a giant. It's been reported that Petraeus preferred an initial drawdown of 5,000 troops with another 5,000 out by next summer. Now, if Obama had announced anything less than 10,000, the show would have been revealed for the farce it was. Because, really, if Obama had gotten up in front of the nation and proclaimed that his long anticipated troop drawdown would amount to a four-digit number, even the cameraman would have been obliged to laugh. The five-digit number gives the proposal an air of robustness—and the fact that Obama chose the smallest five-digit number should clue us in that this was merely about airs.

And let's not forget that uniformed U.S. forces are not the only ones in Afghanistan. There are roughly 40,000 international troops, 110,000 contractors, 290,000 Afghan National Security forces, and 150,000 Pakistani troops on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. In six months, with our 90,000 U.S. troops, that will be about 680,000 forces against less than 100 al Qaeda. Seems a bit overkill.

Something isn't right here. Oh, yes, it's that the objective of U.S. policy in Afghanistan isn't just to dismantle al Qaeda in Afghanistan, it's to … wait, what is it again?


The goal that we seek is achievable, and can be expressed simply: No safe haven from which al Qaeda or its affiliates can launch attacks against our homeland or our allies.


Right. The funny thing about slogans is that they often miss out on much of the substance. On your reckoning, Mr. President, al Qaeda's affiliates include the Taliban, right? Or, at least, elements of the Taliban. Or, well, in any case, if they become too powerful, the first thing they'll do is turn back on that giant neon sign on the Af-Pak border that proclaims “Welcome, al Qaeda!”

Also, excuse me for asking, but how exactly do we keep Afghanistan from being a safe haven for these groups?


We won't try to make Afghanistan a perfect place. We will not police its streets or patrol its mountains indefinitely. That is the responsibility of the Afghan government, which must step up its ability to protect its people, and move from an economy shaped by war to one that can sustain a lasting peace. What we can do, and will do, is build a partnership with the Afghan people that endures –- one that ensures that we will be able to continue targeting terrorists and supporting a sovereign Afghan government.


Well, that's informative. “Build a partnership with the Afghan people that endures.” What kind of partnership is this? Does it require leaving a substantial “support” force in Afghanistan? And is it just me, or are others hearing “nation-building” echoing throughout this segment? Oh, Mr. President, I thought we had ridden you of this nation-building nonsense.

Also note that Obama said the goal is to ensure “no safe haven” for al Qaeda, not “no safe haven in Afghanistan.”


Of course, our efforts must also address terrorist safe havens in Pakistan. No country is more endangered by the presence of violent extremists, which is why we will continue to press Pakistan to expand its participation in securing a more peaceful future for this war-torn region. We'll work with the Pakistani government to root out the cancer of violent extremism, and we will insist that it keeps its commitments.


Of course: Pakistan! Because the authorization for the use of force includes Pakistan. Oh, wait, it doesn't.

As Seth Jones, an Afghanistan expert at the Rand Corporation, told the LATimes, "I don't think 10,000 is going to have a meaningful impact on the strategy." New speech, same strategy—a strategy that's been defeated by both argument and experience so many times that everyone is just about sick of bringing it up. The issue has been so overworked even Congress has caught on. A few weeks before the President made his announcement, 27 U.S. Senators signed a letter addressed to Obama calling for “a shift in strategy and the beginning of a sizable and sustained reduction of U.S. military forces in Afghanistan, beginning in July 2011.” They go on to say,


Mr. President, according to our own intelligence officials, al Qaeda no longer has a large presence in Afghanistan, and, as the strike against bin Laden demonstrated, we have the capacity to confront our terrorist enemies with a dramatically smaller footprint. The costs of prolonging the war far outweigh the benefits. It is time for the United States to shift course in Afghanistan.


The only way to end the conflict in Afghanistan is by a political settlement, one that reconciles all Afghan groups, including the Taliban. Obama did recognize the importance of a political settlement in his speech. But a substantive commitment to withdrawing U.S. troops from Afghanistan—and, yes, a shift in strategy—is necessary for these talks to be successful. Unfortunately, the drawdown outlined by President Obama just might not be enough.

And the war continues …

Thursday, June 9, 2011

Restart

I'm restarting this blog because I need somewhere to put my political writings. Also, I felt it a shame to waste such a fantastic header graphic as the one donning this blog. The Menacing Pleb has returned! Take that, Augustus!

The posts below date back to 2008. I'm leaving them up for posterity's sake. Go ahead and take a gander, but don't laugh too hard or I'll cry.